I plan to write several articles regarding my usage of the Nexus One and iPhone 4.

However, before I get into specifics, I wanted to write about some of my thoughts regarding platforms in general.

Product Life-cycles play a huge role in success today

Having spent my formative years as a smartphone user with Symbian—the android operating system was like discovering fire, or inventing the wheel…life is so much better on the android side of the field. While I doubt that android will erode the iOS base, they will definitely grow at the expense of Symbian, Blackberry OS, and Windows Mobile.

ASIDE: While all three competing OS platforms have announced (or recently released) new versions of their operating systems, how effective their response will be is questionable.

[stag_intro]One of the things that strike me as interesting is that Symbian, BB OS, and Windows Mobile are all at the end of their product life cycle—their best days are spent and only full rewrites will save them; that, or entirely new acquisitions in technology.[/stag_intro]

Five to eight years from now, we’ll see the same thing with iOS devices and android as well. What fascinates me is that I have this feeling that the maximum duration where a product can sustain increasing rewards seems to be getting shorter. Even now, iOS Springboard interface is starting to show its age. ¹

I think there are several historical factors that have lead to how the market had played out:

1. The competitive space is much more fierce now than 5 years ago. Symbian enjoyed near dominance because there wasn’t a viable competitor outside of the US.
2. Separate growth strategies delayed the smartphone wars: BB OS focus was on the enterprise market with mass0market consumer features an afterthought. Moreover,RIM was focused on a three-prong approach with their BES installations, microwave transmitter installations and business devices (anyone remember their pager?). Their goal was very NA focused. This contrasted with Nokia’s outright shunning of North America.
3. Apple hadn’t released the iPhone.
4. Smartphones hadn’t crossed the proverbial chasm.

Symbian in particular is feeling the pain and publicly broadcasting it now that they are open source. Jason Whitmire phrases it well when he says, “its demise as it nears an end to anatural product lifecycle will only be accelerated when it is made available under an open source license next year.”²  When Nokia, your largest, most invested client relegates the OS platform to mid-tier phones, you know you have a problem…

Everyone was surprised, but they are now catching up

When the iPhone was introduced in 2007, the market changed in just that two-hour keynote. Apple made a huge bet and they brought the house down.

No one had a response to the iPhone.

Product development usually takes about 18-months. It wasn’t until mid-to-late 2009 that we saw good competitors (primarily the Droid and Nexus One). Two years have passed, and now there are some reasonable responses on the android platform to iOS (e.g., the Samsung Galaxy S comes to mind).

The move to open source slowed Nokia down, and everyone knows that Symbian^3 is a dead-end. Meego is the future, but it lacks focus.

RIM is still trying to convince the public that they actually care about design.

Microsoft is on the verge of releasing Windows 7 Mobile (a complete rewrite BTW).

And Palm OS, the only viable competitor with a great user experience, they’ve been bought out by HP.

Apple and Android have the mindshare right now, but the real war starts in 2011.

Can’t wait.