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financial crisis

At one level this should come as no surprise. For most of the last decade America was a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers. The personal savings rate dropped from 9 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the 1990s, to just 0.6 percent from 2005 to 2007, and household debt grew much faster than personal income. Why should we have expected our net worth to go up?

Yet until very recently Americans believed they were getting richer, because they received statements saying that their houses and stock portfolios were appreciating in value faster than their debts were increasing. And if the belief of many Americans that they could count on capital gains forever sounds naïve, it’s worth remembering just how many influential voices — notably in right-leaning publications like The Wall Street Journal, Forbes and National Review — promoted that belief, and ridiculed those who worried about low savings and high levels of debt.

from Paul Krugman regarding America’s Decade at Bernies [via NY Times Op-Ed]

Crazy. The numbers above are absolutely scary. I think the world is in for a lost decade similar to what happened in Japan. It will take years for families to work off the debt that they incurred, and consumer confidence hasn’t even hit rock bottom.

At this point, it’s better to tell people right up front, ‘We don’t know,’ as opposed to trying to put out numbers that we’ll be dissatisfied with in maybe less than a week. // To put numerical ‘certainty’ on the Canadian and Ontario outlooks at this point in time . . . seems silly – and potentially damaging if the outlook is used as a basis for short-term planning

Peter Dungan, economist, from UofT’s Institute for Policy Analysis, which published a report entitled We Don’t Have a Clue and We’re Not Going to Pretend That We Do (via The Globe and Mail and Canada.com)

It’s great that they are honest.

Pixels & Widgets

A blog by Tai Toh